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AP VoteCast data from midterms is now available

, by Nicole Meir

The Associated Press and NORC at the University of Chicago today made available the data from AP VoteCast’s more than 120,000 interviews with voters in the runup to the 2022 U.S. midterm elections.

An election worker boxes tabulated ballots inside the Maricopa County Recorders Office, Nov. 9, 2022, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)

AP VoteCast provided estimates of the electorate nationally and in 48 states -- including all 45 states with Senate or gubernatorial races -- plus Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

At 5 p.m. ET on Election Day – the critical moment for an election survey, when decisions about the evening’s editorial coverage are made -- AP VoteCast correctly projected the winner in 97% of Senate and gubernatorial elections. The estimate of the national House vote at 5 p.m. ET had a 1.3 percentage point advantage for Republican candidates over Democratic candidates, and the final vote count had a 2.8 percentage point advantage for Republican candidates.

“When we developed AP VoteCast, we committed to making constant improvements in the survey’s methodology to ensure we’re fielding the most accurate survey possible," said AP Director of Public Opinion Research Emily Swanson. "The 2022 survey was our most accurate version yet, and we’re looking forward to another great year in 2024.”

AP VoteCast, a modern, innovative survey of the American electorate designed to tell the story of how Americans vote today, debuted in the 2018 midterm elections after years of testing and development.

You can read more about AP VoteCast’s performance in the 2022 midterms in this report from NORC.